Talk by Roman Frigg at CAS (10th Jan)

[Dardashti, Radin]

Speaker: Roman Frigg (LSE)
Friday 10th Jan 2014
Location: Auditorium of Center for Advanced Studies, Seestraße 13, 
80802 Munich
Time: 18:15 - 19:45

Title: Chaos beyond the Butterfly Effect: The Poison Pill of Structural 
Model Error

Abstract:
The sensitive dependence on initial condition associated with chaotic 
models, the so-called "Butterfly Effect", imposes limitations on the 
models’ predictive power. These limitations have been widely recognized 
and extensively discussed. In this lecture, Roman Frigg will draw 
attention to an additional so far under-appreciated problem, namely 
structural model error (SME). If a nonlinear model has only the 
slightest SME, then its ability to generate useful prediction is lost. 
This puts us in a worse epistemic situation: while we can mitigate 
against the butterfly effect by making probabilistic predictions, this 
route is foreclosed in the case of SME. Roman Frigg will discuss in what 
way the description of problems affects actual modeling projects, in 
particular in the context of making predictions about the local effects 
of climate change.

Registration required. If you are interested in participating please 
contact: info at cas.lmu.de