Speaker: Roman Frigg (LSE)
Friday 10th Jan 2014
Location: Auditorium of Center for Advanced Studies, Seestraße 13,
80802 Munich
Time: 18:15 - 19:45
Title: Chaos beyond the Butterfly Effect: The Poison Pill of Structural
Model Error
Abstract:
The sensitive dependence on initial condition associated with chaotic
models, the so-called "Butterfly Effect", imposes limitations on the
models’ predictive power. These limitations have been widely recognized
and extensively discussed. In this lecture, Roman Frigg will draw
attention to an additional so far under-appreciated problem, namely
structural model error (SME). If a nonlinear model has only the
slightest SME, then its ability to generate useful prediction is lost.
This puts us in a worse epistemic situation: while we can mitigate
against the butterfly effect by making probabilistic predictions, this
route is foreclosed in the case of SME. Roman Frigg will discuss in what
way the description of problems affects actual modeling projects, in
particular in the context of making predictions about the local effects
of climate change.
Registration required. If you are interested in participating please
contact: info(a)cas.lmu.de